Fertility and Family Formation in the Moscow Agglomeration during the COVID-19 Pandemic
https://doi.org/10.47619/2713-2617.zm.2022.v.3i3;6-16
Abstract
The article analyzes changes in fertility and marriage rates in the Moscow agglomeration in 2020–2022. The choice of the Moscow agglomeration as an object is due to the significant influence of the share of nonresident births in Moscow on birth rates in Moscow and the Moscow region, which should be, to some extent, eliminated in order to correctly assess the impact of other factors. In 2020, due to the COVID-19 pandemic, marriage rates dropped significantly, especially for first marriages. A likely consequence of this was that the increase in the total fertility rate for first births in 2021 was very small, but for second and third and subsequent births was substantial. It can be assumed that the negative impact of the decline in marriage rates in 2020 on first births in 2021 was partially offset by the positive impact of the start of the maternity (family) capital for the first child. Combined with the effect of this factor, the increase in marriage rates in 2021 may have contributed to higher fertility rates for first births in the first half of 2022, while they declined for second and third and subsequent births. In addition to its effect on the decline in the number of marriages in 2020 and its indirect effect on first births, the initial period of the pandemic probably had an effect on the significant decline in the number of births in the Moscow agglomeration in January and February 2021.
About the Authors
V. N. Arkhangelskiy
State Budgetary Institution “Research Institute for Healthcare Organization and Medical Management of Moscow Healthcare Department”;
Institute for Demographic Research – Branch of the Federal Center of Theoretical and Applied Sociology of the Russian Academy of Sciences;
Lomonosov Moscow State University, Faculty of Economics
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Vladmir N. Arkhangelskiy – Candidate of Economic Sciences, Researcher, Demography Department;
Head of the Department of Fertility and Reproductive Behavior;
Head of the Population Reproduction and Demographic Policy Sector, Research Laboratory of Population Economics and Demography, Faculty of Economics
9, Sharikopodshipnikovskaya st., 115088, Moscow;
6/1 Fotievoi st., 119333, Moscow;
1, bld. 46 Leninskie Gory, 119991, Moscow
E. S. Zayko
State Budgetary Institution “Research Institute for Healthcare Organization and Medical Management of Moscow Healthcare Department”
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Ekaterina S. Zayko – analyst
9, Sharikopodshipnikovskaya st., 115088, Moscow
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Review
For citations:
Arkhangelskiy V.N., Zayko E.S. Fertility and Family Formation in the Moscow Agglomeration during the COVID-19 Pandemic. City Healthcare. 2022;3(3):6-16. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.47619/2713-2617.zm.2022.v.3i3;6-16
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