The Impact of the Pandemic on Life Expectancy and Related Causes Based on Population Census Data in Moscow

Abstract

During the coronavirus pandemic, there was a noticeable increase in mortality and a decline in life expectancy. Precise estimates of mortality depend, among other things, on the reliability of data on population size and the number of deaths. The goal was to identify changes in the level and trends of mortality of the Moscow population during the pandemic associated with changes in the estimate of the number and age composition of the Moscow population based on the results of the census. Between 2019 and 2021, life expectancy decreased by 0.8 years for men and 0.45 years for women compared to current estimates. Additionally, the age distribution shifted; there was a greater increase in mortality among men aged 30–60 and women aged 45–59. While the contribution of children remained relatively unchanged, the estimates of young adults (aged 15–29) and the elderly (aged 60–74) have decreased. As expected, higher mortality levels were mainly related to the coronavirus infection. However, excess mortality, especially in men, was associated with substance abuse. It was revealed that an extremely high contribution to the decline in life expectancy was related to the diseases of the nervous system. The estimates were comparable to the indicators of coronavirus infection in men and exceeded those in women.